We broke down Iowa's performance at each weight in the Looking Ahead series (click here if you missed it), so now it's time to look at the big picture. What are the top five teams from this year's NCAA Tournament losing from their 2012 squads? What are they returning? What are realistic projections for 2013?
For the record, I think only three of that top five -- Penn State, Minnesota, and Iowa -- are legit title contenders. I don't think anyone else has the depth or the studs that those teams have to compete for a title. But Oklahoma State has a shot if everything breaks their way and I included Cornell out of respect for their strong showings in recent years.
Iowa's point total was almost entirely a product of five wrestlers -- Matt McDonough (125), Tony Ramos (133), Montell Marion (141), Derek St. John (157), and Bobby Telford (HWT). Those five accounted for 89% of Iowa's 107.5 points at the NCAA Tournament. The good news is that almost all of those points are returning in 2013 -- Iowa's only significant departure is Montell Marion at 141. Iowa returns 89.5 points in 2013 -- but we know that won't be enough to win an NCAA Championship most years (and almost certainly not with Penn State returning with a still-loaded team). So the question becomes: where can they make up points?
Don't look to McD. He contributed 27 points in 2012 and the only way he's going to improve that figure is by picking up 2-3 more pins, which will be hard to do. If he can match that 27-point total in 2013, we should be satisfied. Ramos added 18.5 points and a 3rd place finish in 2012 -- can he do better? Maybe. Oliver's expected departure from 133 could move Tony into the #2 spot at the weight (behind Ohio State's Logan Stieber), since he's had significant success against virtually everyone else at the weight. He should be a good bet to at least match his '12 efforts. Iowa figures to take a hit at 141; no matter who ultimately fills that spot, it's probably not reasonable to expect him to duplicate Marion's NCAA runner-up finish. Just making the podium and getting double-digit points would be a good outcome. (One area where Dwieza or Ballweg may be able to improve on Marion: bonus points.)
PREVIOUS INSTALLMENTS: 125 | 133 | 141 | 149 | 157 | 165 | 174 | 184 | 197
A note about the tables below: the left-hand column lists the 2012 All-Americans; wrestlers that are highlighted are non-seniors expected to return in 2012-13. I gave unique, color-coded highlights to the members of the teams that should be major contenders next year (Iowa, Penn State, Oklahoma State, Cornell, Minnesota, and Wisconsin); returning wrestlers from other teams got a plain gray highlight. The middle column lists wrestlers expected to return in 2012-13 who didn't attain All-America status, but who are still threats worth knowing about. The right-hand column lists some of the notable freshmen who could cause a stir next year, including both freshmen who redshirted in 2011-2012 and incoming freshmen for 2012-2013. These lists aren't comprehensive, so feel free to mention anyone I may have omitted.
Also: most of the time, the look-ahead to next year assumes guys won't be moving weights at all (unless otherwise specified); obviously in some cases guys will be moving to different weights.
HWT: Bobby Telford (RS FR, 29-9) and Blake Rasing (SR, 13-6) Big Ten Runner-Up | NCAA 5th-place Finisher
The Reasonable Expectation:
So what can we expect out of Iowa at this weight? Can we even really make a prediction until we know who the regular starter will be? Even then, how can we make a prediction when we don't know whether "Good Blake" or "Bad Blake" will show up if Rasing gets the nod or how Telford will handle big-time competition? Good questions, all. We'll start with the "easiest" question first -- who wins the spot? For now, I'm putting my marker down on Telford. Yes, Rasing is the defending Big Ten Champion and he has considerable experience and wrestled very well at times last year. But Telford seems like the real deal and I think his aggressive approach and attack-happy (for heavyweights, anyway) style will allow him to overcome his lack of experience and earn the nod here. So what can we expect from him if he does take the starting job? Matching Rasing's Big Ten Championship from a year ago will be a tall order for the redshirt freshman, particularly since five of the InterMat Top 20 hail from the Big Ten -- but I think a top-four finish is attainable. As far as NCAAs go, the big question is whether or not he can bull his way onto the podium and earn All-American status -- and I think he can (albeit at one of the lower spots, like 6-8th).
The Result: 2nd place at Big Ten Tournament; 5th place at NCAA Tournament
The Verdict: In a way, Bobby Telford's 2011-12 season makes a nice three-act play. In Act I, our hero makes his triumphant debut, winning acclaim and finding success at every turn. Life is good. In Act II, adversity strikes and our hero stumbles and fails. Life sucks. In Act III, our hero rises from the depths to find success anew, having learned a valuable lesson from his previous failure(s). This being real life and not a Shakespearean comedy, this story doesn't end with a wedding and everyone happy (on the bright side, it also doesn't end like a Shakespearean tragedy -- with everyone dead), nor even a grand moment of triumph. Telford finished 2nd at the Big Ten Tournament and 5th at the NCAA Tournament, which is still a disappointment in a sport where the ultimate measure of success is a championship.
PREVIOUS INSTALLMENTS: 125 | 133 | 141 | 149 | 157 | 165 | 174 | 184
A note about the tables below: the left-hand column lists the 2012 All-Americans; wrestlers that are highlighted are non-seniors expected to return in 2012-13. I gave unique, color-coded highlights to the members of the teams that should be major contenders next year (Iowa, Penn State, Oklahoma State, Cornell, Minnesota, and Wisconsin); returning wrestlers from other teams got a plain gray highlight. The middle column lists wrestlers expected to return in 2012-13 who didn't attain All-America status, but who are still threats worth knowing about. The right-hand column lists some of the notable freshmen who could cause a stir next year, including both freshmen who redshirted in 2011-2012 and incoming freshmen for 2012-2013. These lists aren't comprehensive, so feel free to mention anyone I may have omitted.
Also: most of the time, the look-ahead to next year assumes guys won't be moving weights at all (unless otherwise specified); obviously in some cases guys will be moving to different weights.
197: Tomas Lira (SO, 11-10) and Grant Gambrall (JR, 12-12) Big Ten DNP | DNQ for NCAA Tournament
The Reasonable Expectation:
Again, until we see what Lira looks like against some actual 197ers -- and, more importantly, some actual decent 197ers -- it's pretty much impossible to form any sort of rational expectation for his performance this year. He's a complete mystery right now. At the moment, though, I'd be pretty happy with a .500 record in dual meets and simply qualifying for the NCAA Tournament -- anything beyond that would be gravy and even that might be expecting too much. This is not a weight for Iowa where it pays to dream big. For now this looks like the annual hole in the line-up (last year it was 149), so we may just need to be content with whatever success we can scrape together here.
The Result: DNP at Big Ten Tournament; DNQ at NCAA Tournament
The Verdict: Well, I got at least one thing right -- this was the hole in the lineup (or at least a hole). Unfortunately, the results didn't even meet the admittedly low bar I set before the season. A .500 record in dual meets? Grant Gambrall, Tomas Lira, and Vinnie Wagner combined to go 6-14 in dual meets this season. Qualifying for the NCAA Tournament? Nope -- Wagner went 0-2 at the Big Ten Tournament, ending his hopes and ending a miserable season overall for Iowa's 197ers. In all competition at 197, Gambrall, Lira, and Wagner went 19-21, with most of those wins coming against overmatched opponents at events like the Lindenwood and Grand View Opens.
PREVIOUS INSTALLMENTS: 125 | 133 | 141 | 149 | 157 | 165 | 174
A note about the tables below: the left-hand column lists the 2012 All-Americans; wrestlers that are highlighted are non-seniors expected to return in 2012-13. I gave unique, color-coded highlights to the members of the teams that should be major contenders next year (Iowa, Penn State, Oklahoma State, Cornell, Minnesota, and Wisconsin); returning wrestlers from other teams got a plain gray highlight. The middle column lists wrestlers expected to return in 2012-13 who didn't attain All-America status, but who are still threats worth knowing about. The right-hand column lists some of the notable freshmen who could cause a stir next year, including both freshmen who redshirted in 2011-2012 and incoming freshmen for 2012-2013. These lists aren't comprehensive, so feel free to mention anyone I may have omitted.
Also: most of the time, the look-ahead to next year assumes guys won't be moving weights at all (unless otherwise specified); obviously in some cases guys will be moving to different weights.
184: Vinnie Wagner (SR, 9-12) and Grant Gambrall (JR, 12-12) Big Ten 5th-place Finisher | NCAA DNP
The Reasonable Expectation:
Needless to say, this makes predictions for Gambrall rather maddening. Frankly, his own Jekyll and Hyde performances last year would have made things difficult enough -- never mind the staggering depth and quality of this weight nationally. But I still have to put my marker down somewhere, so I'll go with a 3rd place finish in the Big Ten (finishing behind Wright and Steinhaus) and a lower All-America finish (5-8th place) at the NCAA Tournament. Mind you, better finishes than that would hardly shock me -- he beat many of the other guys in the top 5-10 last year and his NCAA Tournament run was certainly impressive. At the moment, though, it's not yet clear if that was just the result of Gambrall putting everything together for one hot run over a weekend or if he truly has elevated his game to another level and it was a precursor to the sort of dominant wrestling we'll see out of him this year. I lean toward the former at the moment -- but I'd be happy to be proven wrong.
The Result: 5th place at Big Ten Tournament; DNP at NCAA Tournament
The Verdict: Did I say Ethen Lofthouse was the new frontrunner for the "most frustrating wrestler on the Iowa team" award with Montell Marion's departure? I may have been premature in handing that honor to Lofthouse; based on the last two years, Grant Gambrall could easily give him a run for his money. I'm loathe to criticize him for last season too harshly; he suffered a concussion in the off-season that clearly impacted his preparation for the season and put him well behind schedule (and above his usual 184-lb. weight class). There have been varying reports about the role the concussion played in Gambrall's struggles (some say a lot, some say a little) and I have no way of knowing which reports (if any) are true. Nor do I have any desire to criticize a young man dealing with concussions; if the last few years have taught us anything, it's that concussions are 1) grossly under-reported in athletics, 2) a very serious problem, with long-term implications that we're just beginning to understand.
Hey, it's been a while since we had an installment of Hawkeyes Behaving Badly*, hasn't it? Wait no longer -- wrestler Bobby Telford got arrested for public intoxication the weekend before last.
IOWA CITY, Iowa -- Iowa heavyweight wrestler Bobby Telford faces a charge of public intoxication after an incident last weekend outside an Iowa City bar.
A police reported cited by the Iowa City Press-Citizen says the 20-year-old Telford was found leaning against the front of the bar late the night of April 20. Police say he smelled of alcohol and appeared to be intoxicated.
Unconfirmed reports said the bar won the match, 2-0. (GET IT? BECAUSE TELFORD WAS LEANING AGAINST THE BAR AND HEAVYWEIGHT WRESTLING IS REALLY SLOW AND BOR -- oh forget it.) In any event, Telford got arrested and the incident was duly reported (a week later).
There was no comment from Iowa wrestling coach Tom Brands on what Telford's punishment would be, but I suspect Telford might be getting very well-acquainted with the steps at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. I wouldn't expect this incident to have much (if any) impact on Telford's status with the team or his starting role. A 20-year old was arrested for being drunk. Oh, the horror.
* Strictly speaking, getting arrested for being drunk is pretty far down the list of bad behaviors, especially for a 20-year old in a college town. But it's also still technically illegal.
In many ways, the U.S. Olympic Trials in Iowa City this past weekend were a smashing success: they set (again and again) attendance records and the action was (frequently) thrilling and exciting (although not always, but more on that later). In one important way, though, they were a failure: no Iowa wrestler (present or former) made the U.S. team for the London Olympics this August. In fairness, only two Iowa wrestlers were really given a serious chance at making the team -- longtime freestyle competitor and current Iowa assistant coach Mike Zadick (at 60kg) and beloved recent two-time national champion Brent Metcalf (at 66kg).
Zadick bowed out Saturday morning in the Challenge Tournament, losing to current NCAA Champion (at 133 lbs.) Logan Stieber. Brent Metcalf took a dramatic, thrilling route to the finals at 66kg (every single one of his matches Sunday lasted three periods and most periods were decided by a single point), only to come up just short to former Iowa strength and conditioning coach, Jared Frayer. Ultimately, Metcalf was eliminated via tiebreaker -- he had scored a tying takedown in the final seconds of the third period of his second match against Frayer (the finals were best two out of three matches; Frayer had already won the first match between them), but that tying point was overruled by the fact that Frayer's two points in that third period came on a single two-point move -- which trumped Metcalf's two one-point moves in that period. The agony of defeat indeed.
There may be no crueler second-place finish in wrestling than a second-place finish at the Olympic Trials. Obviously, finishing second is always bittersweet -- the goal is to finish first and be a champion -- but second-place in, say, the NCAA Tournament is still a pretty impressive accomplishment. Second-place at the Olympic Trials is still impressive... but the Trials are a classic win-or-bust event. They're a stopgap competition on the way to the real event -- the Olympics -- and the only way to stay on that route is to finish first. Unfortunately, Brent Metcalf couldn't do that. And to take nothing away from Frayer -- he wrestled well and absolutely deserves to win and go to the Olympics -- but that sucks. Chances are, if you're reading this, you think that sucks. The overwhelming majority of the 13,000-plus in attendance at Sunday's finals thought that sucked. Because, frankly, the possibility of Brent Metcalf, one of the most beloved Iowa wrestlers of the last decade, taking first at the Trials and going to the Olympics was definitely a factor in those record crowds that came to the Trials. There's probably more natural affinity for wrestling in Iowa City than anywhere else, but I don't think they're basically selling out Carver-Hawkeye if not for the fact that a few Iowa boys (Zadick and Metcalf) had legitimate chances to make the U.S. Olympic Team.
"This is the only bronze medal that I will ever accept" -- Dan Gable | VIDEO footage of unveiling here
So how did Iowa lure Dan Gable, a two-time NCAA champion and one of the greatest college wrestlers of all-time away from his alma mater, Iowa State? It all started with a box of athletic tape.
"Little did I know, he was a plant (at Iowa State)," Gable said of Marks, who later spearheaded recruiting for Iowa under Kurdelmeier and Gable. "He was one of the guys on the inside … trying to get me to come back to Iowa City. I didn’t realize all this homework was being done. (But) as soon as the job was done and I was committed to come (to Iowa, Marks) up and left everything, ran out and never went back."
Gable theorized Kurdelmeier and the Hawkeyes gained insider information through Marks and knew the full story about his knee injury — how he tore cartilage that February, ignored a doctor’s recommendation for surgery that would have ended his Olympic quest, taped the leg for every workout and wound up paying for bandages out of his own pocket when he had trouble obtaining them from the Cyclones.
Then a package arrived from Iowa trainer Tom Spalj — a box filled with enough tape to last Gable through the Olympics.
"That really influenced me," he said. "It was already a done deal behind the scenes with my parents. But for me feeling good, that was a big deal. I’ve never forgotten it."
Somewhere in Ames, Jamie Pollard is retroactively inconsolable.
Meanwhile, as we celebrate Dan Gable's astounding accomplishments, it's worth sparing a few moments to celebrate his predecessor at Iowa, Gary Kurdelmeier. Gable may be the G.O.A.T., but Kurdelemeier established the foundation for Iowa wrestling that Gable elevated into the stratosphere. He was also a trailblazer: in marketing and in pushing the limits of the NCAA rules (often forcing them to devise new rules after he exploited their loopholes). Here's to you, Gary.
More U.S. Olympics Trials coverage than you can shake a stick at after the jump.
PREVIOUS INSTALLMENTS: 125 | 133 | 141 | 149 | 157 | 165
A note about the tables below: the left-hand column lists the 2012 All-Americans; wrestlers that are highlighted are non-seniors expected to return in 2012-13. I gave unique, color-coded highlights to the members of the teams that should be major contenders next year (Iowa, Penn State, Oklahoma State, Cornell, Minnesota, and Wisconsin); returning wrestlers from other teams got a plain gray highlight. The middle column lists wrestlers expected to return in 2012-13 who didn't attain All-America status, but who are still threats worth knowing about. The right-hand column lists some of the notable freshmen who could cause a stir next year, including both freshmen who redshirted in 2011-2012 and incoming freshmen for 2012-2013. These lists aren't comprehensive, so feel free to mention anyone I may have omitted.
Also: most of the time, the look-ahead to next year assumes guys won't be moving weights at all (unless otherwise specified); obviously in some cases guys will be moving to different weights.
174: Ethen Lofthouse (SO, 28-9) Big Ten 3rd-place Finisher | NCAA 7th-place Finisher
The Reasonable Expectation:
If Lofthouse has upped his game from a year ago, there's a clear path to very solid finishes at Big Tens and NCAAs for him. Heflin and (particularly) Blanton could prove to be real threats in the Big Ten, but for now Lofthouse's biggest impediment to a Big Ten title looks to be Ruth; he closed the gap on Ruth significantly from the time of their dual meet match to the Big Ten Tournament, so it's possible that with a bit more seasoning, Lofthouse could slip past him this year. Even if he can't do that, though, he should be able to duplicate his 3rd place finish at the Big Ten Tournament. He should also have little trouble improving upon his disappointing NCAA showing and, frankly, an All-American finish seems well within his reach this year. Let's say 2nd place in the Big Ten and 5th place in the NCAA.
The Result: 3rd place at Big Ten Tournament; 7th place at NCAA Tournament
The Verdict: As you probably noticed with yesterday's write-up on 165, we've now entered the challenging part of the Iowa line-up. And few Iowa wrestlers were more frustrating to watch in 2011-12 than Ethen Lofthouse. With Montell Marion's departure, Ethen seems destined to take over the role of "the most aggravating wrestler in the line-up." Every match is a toss-up between whether Good Ethen or Bad Ethen will show up. Lofthouse has been the full-time starter for two years and he's wrestled almost 70 matches and yet... I still don't know how good he is. I don't know if he does, either.
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