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Fran-Graphs, Nebraska


Frangraphs_nebraska_medium

[Photo credit: AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall]

Iowa is going to wish they had this one back. In their first game back after a long layoff, the Hawks showed that they had forgotten everything they had learned during their brief mini-resurgence in January, played abysmal defense, and squandered another large lead. They made one of their weakest opponents look like an offensive juggernaut, and the scary thing was that they showed remarkably little passion doing so.

Consider this: Nebraska is 225th in the country in offensive efficiency, averaging .953 points every time down the floor. Against Iowa, the Cornhuskers averaged 1.29 points per possession, a figure that is miles above even what the best offensive teams in the country average. Iowa too had a great offensive game, too, averaging 1.19 points per possession, far better than their 1.05 season-long average, but the fact that the points were coming so easily was also the key to Iowa's downfall. The game seemed too easy for too long, and Iowa played like they never really took Nebraska seriously. It was a classic example of a team playing down to its competition, allowing them to stay a little too close for a little too long, then succumbing when that team got hot at just the right moment.

There was a time, midway through the first half, when Iowa could have turned the game into a blowout. Nebraska was playing like they expected it to be a blowout, looking listless on offense and turning the ball over, Iowa was scoring with ease, largely thanks to the brilliant play of Zach McCabe, the lead was 11, 31-20. Aaron White had a clear three lined up, and Carver was ready to explode, but the shot rimmed out and Nebraska got a layup on the subsequent possession to cut the lead to eight. Then Bryce Cartwright embarked on a series of baffling mistakes that helped bring the Cornhuskers back into the game.

Star-divide

First Cartwright attempted to thread a pass to Brommer on the pick and roll that was intercepted and led to a foul on the break. Next he missed a point-blank layup, which was rebounded by Nebraska and led to a run-out. Then he committed another turnover, managed to steal the ball back as Nebraska broke up court, only to botch an easy two-on-one play by giving Josh Oglesby a difficult bounce pass instead of an easy chest pass, leading to another run out. Then he capped it off on Iowa's next possession by dribbling around aimlessly for a good 10 seconds, leading to a disorganized possession, a McCabe turnover and another run-out.

It wasn't the reason Iowa lost, but that sequence of possessions did allow Nebraska to close the lead from 11 to three in about a minute and a half and turned a potential blowout into a dogfight. Cartwright had a similar baffling turnover in a crucial moment in the second half, when Iowa was up four with the ball and about eight minutes left. He got in the air while making a pass, only to discover the man he was passing to wasn't open, then passed it to a Nebraska player to avoid a travel, leading to a layup. That cut the lead to two and deflated the Carver crowd.

The main reason Iowa lost, though, was that they returned to the passive defense that has plagued them all season. Specifically, they got absolutely torched in the second half when they ran their zone defense. The zone seemed to work well in the first half, and so Iowa's coaches kept running it in the second half. But they kept running it even after Nebraska figured it out fairly early in the second half. The weakest point in the zone all year has been in the corners. When opponents station shooters just at the wing, the zone does a fine job of covering them, but if they place shooters at the wing and in the corner, Iowa finds itself for whatever reason with one man trying to defend two shooters, leading to open shots. Nebraska got open again and again in the corner, and made five of their seven threes in the second half. They may have gone to the zone to combat the quickness of Nebraska's four-guard line-up, or to cover up their own lack of interior defense (Melsahn Basabe played very limited minutes, which is another story), but it allowed Nebraska to get several clear shots from three. It also hurt Iowa's ability to corral defensive rebounds. Without clear box-out assignments, the Cornhuskers grabbed eight of their ten total offensive rebounds in the second half, including a crucial one with 41 seconds left that denied the Hawks a chance to tie the game.

As much as the game came down to defensive lapses by Iowa, Nebraska made plenty of mistakes of their own. Matt Gatens has never had so many open looks at the basket as in this game -- they just didn't go in. I counted five open threes that Gatens missed (he finished 2-8 from deep). When Brandon Richardson got open looks, he made them, going 6-7 from deep and 9-10 from the field for 25 points. Iowa surely wasn't focused on Richardson going into the game (before last night's game he was averaging about six points a game and 30% three-point shooting). To his credit, he made the shots Iowa gave him. If a couple more Gatens threes had gone in and a couple of Richardson threes hadn't, it would have been a very different game.

One last note on Basabe. He only played 13 minutes, had zero shots, zero points, and one rebound. He got in a bit of foul trouble, but that can't have been the reason he played so little. He finished with only three fouls and was kept off the court during the final five minutes. He looked totally passive on offense, not even trying to score when he had the chance. Something is really wrong with his game right now. His minutes were absorbed by Brommer, who didn't do much of note, and Devon Archie, who played some decent defense and had the play of the night when he deployed a nasty spin move and dunked all over Jorge Brian Diaz (he bricked the subsequent free throw, natch). For the most part, though, Iowa played without a true center, using the small-ball line-up of White-McCabe-May as their front line. White had another very positive game in his quasi-post role, grabbing nine rebounds, five of which were offensive, and scoring points in his usual energetic way, but the lack of a true post player hurt the Hawkeyes down the stretch. On the play where Nebraska got an offensive rebound in the last minute, Iowa had, I believe, White, McCabe, Oglesby, Marble and Gatens on the floor. The shot went up by Nebraska, and because of rotations, the only man under the basket was Oglesby and two Nebraska players. Oglesby had no chance to get the rebound over those two guys, and really it's unfortunate that Iowa was in a position where they had a shooting guard trying to hold down the defensive glass.

This was a very disappointing loss for Iowa, not just because this was one of their expected wins, and not just because this is the kind of loss that probably makes the NIT a pipe dream. It was disappointing because the team played complacently and, well, kind of dumb. They didn't put Nebraska away when they had the chance, they were slow to adjust when Nebraska adjusted to their zone in the second half, and they played like they thought they could easily turn it on and win the game whenever they wanted to. Some of the players didn't play well, but it was also a poor showing by the coaching staff, who kept with the zone far too long, and who neglected to use their timeouts to slow Nebraska down when the game was getting away from them, either in the first or second half (Iowa used its first timeout with three and a half minutes left in the game). This felt like the basketball equivalent of the Minnesota football game this year: Iowa had the better team, played better for much of the game, but through carelessness and lack of focus, allowed the other team to hang around for too long, and lost in the end. Iowa's next game is at Indiana, so let's hope that the good side of their split-personality shows up, and not the team that made Clemson, Campbell and Nebraska look like offensive powerhouses.

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Comments

I absolutely love Fran's face in that pic

He is the right guy for Iowa. If he’s not, I’m not going to be the one to tell him.

tl;dr

/Harrison Cougar’d

Seriously though, HEC. Outstanding breakdown again. Especially for those of us without ESPNU.

I still don't know what "TL:DR" means.
"too long; didn't read"

per UrbanDictionary.

Thank you for enlightening me.
That was so goddamn frustrating to watch.

Just absolutely horrible. And it might be time to just bench Melsahn’s lazy ass for one or two entire games. Ugh. Just disgusting.

He looked positively uninterested in the game
As we get deeper into the season it seems more likely that Melsahn will probably finish his career elsewhere.

Which is a bit frustrating given the potential he showed last year.

At this point, I'd be shocked if he graduates a Hawkeye.
Agreed

Fran’s comments post-game indicate that he may not have much time left in Iowa City.

Fran was really critical of Basabe in the post-game radio interview

If I had the internet skills I’d find a way to link to it, but I don’t.

here’s the presser


13 Melsahn minutes no shots.
COACH McCAFFERY: No effort. No effort from him tonight. Disappointing.

You’ve talked, it’s happened over and over again
COACH McCAFFERY: He’s got to figure it out. We have done everything that we can do in terms of breaking it down on film, having discussions with him, working with him extra.
He’s got to decide where this is going. I can’t make it any simpler than that. I told him the same thing. He’s got to decide, does he want to rebound, does he want to run, does he want to block shots, does he want to attack the rim.
Now, I will say this. He’s doing it in practice. So I think that’s probably step one, for him. Because he’s clearly struggling in the games but he’s not struggling in practice. That’s why he’s still in the starting lineup.
So I do think it will happen for him, but tonight, didn’t bring it and that’s unfortunate.

I don’t read into that that Mel isn’t long for Iowa City

And, in fairness,

in practice, he’s doing this against Olaseni, Archie, Brommer.

In games, he has to go against guys who are starting for Big Ten programs.

I didn't hear Fran's post-game

So admittedly I actually don’t know what he said. But is there a chance that we’re so used to football attrition (and Lickliter) that we’re just assuming he’ll leave?

Wasn't there some offseason quote about smaller programs in the NY area?

Something like the coaches hinting that they know some coaches that will be happy to take on Basabe. I wish I could remember, but I’ve no idea where to begin searching.

We have a quarum.

Talk about somebody reading his own press clippings; apparently he figures he’s accomplished everything he set out to do.

For Christ Sake

He is a Sophomore. He has had a few good games, yes more bad ones that good, but he also carried us last year. He has two plus years left, and if we had a team worth a shit last year he wouldn’t have played a minute. He would have red-shirted or played sparingly. He’s playing center against 7 ft players, while Archie and Gabe O sit. He’s a forward playing center in the B1G.

Let’s see what he does when Woodbury is the center, White and Mel as forwards. I think he’ll be the player we had last year (with some guy named Jarryd Cole playing center). Or, just write him off and assume he’s leaving after one bad year (his second year)

I don't think anyone actually wants him to leave.

I certainly haven’t seen anyone asking for it to happen.

Nor did you see me saying anyone wants him to leave.

But a comment like “Fran’s comments post-game indicate he may not have much time left in Iowa City” can only be interpreted as people are expecting him to leave, whether they “want” him to or not.

I hope you're right.
I hope this is just some epically bad sophomore slump

But more and more Basabe seems to just not care. You’re right that he’s playing outside of his ideal role, but look at Marble. When we needed a guard. That job fell on Marble. He played outside of his comfort zone, and he’s gotten a hell of a lot better because of it. Basabe has been the exact opposite. It’s not just that he’s struggled in a role that’s not suited to him, he hasn’t even showed up. I hope he returns to form, but right now he should not be starting.

Marble played outside of his comfort zone, and he’s gotten a hell of a lot better because of it. Basabe has been the exact opposite.

It’s a little easier to be enthusiastic about Marble’s role: he basically gets to slash and shoot.

Basabe now has to give us more defense. More rebounding. And still have the energy to be the same offensive player as last year.

Yeah, Basabe’s played like shit. He showed up at least somewhat out of shape. To me, some of the blame for this is on the coaches. Maybe not even 50% of the blame, but some.

I dont think Marble was playing out of his comfort zone.

I thought all of a last year he needed to handle the ball more. I think he was moved INTO his comfort zone.

If Basabe does stay, and I hope he does, then I think he benefits greatly from Woodbury's arrival.

Mel showed that he’s a great talent, but he’s not big enough to be a 5 in the B1G. Moving back to the 4 and letting a 7-footer run the paint should be a large weight off of his shoulders.

Yeah, that's what I'm hoping too.
A couple of comments...

1) Why was the officiating not called out in this review? It may be homer-like to do it, but the end of the first half was a key reason Nebraska was able to stick around as Iowa was called for a foul whenever they breathed. In the second half, there were plenty of fouls not called on Nebraska that were called on Iowa throughout the game. The whim of the officiating crew is one reason why basketball frustrates me so much at times!

2) ESPNU’s logo for Iowa had a friggin’ duck bill! It was simply a recycle from Oregon. Very insulting! They could have at least used a hawk beak, but Iowa rarely gets respect in any sport from major networks and commentators, so I guess it doesn’t surprise me that the school isn’t important enough to have its own ESPNU logo. But still, a duck bill? ARGH!!!

I was watching from the stands

So I may have not had the best perspective on the refs, but they honestly didn’t seem that bad to me. There was that squat referee who always looks like he’s just recovered from a three-day bender, and he did call a lot of junk on Iowa, but overall I thought it was pretty even. I wish I could see the replay, though.

Don't get me wrong - you have another fantastic review here!

You’ve just had comments on officiating before so I was looking forward to what your thoughts were here. Unfortunately for me, being in the heart of Cornhuskerland (Omaha), my only option is TV. There were plenty of issues with it. The big one at the end of the game that stands out was the over-the-back non-call on the rebound that let Nebraska bleed off a butt load of clock with less than 2 minutes to go. That was routinely called on Iowa! The refs called everything in the first half but “let Nebraska play” in the second. Consistency is a killer in basketball officiating, and when the team plays crappy itself it just makes it worse.

That wasnt an over the back

It happened right in front of me. Cant punish the tall guy because he’s tall.

That's not the point.

At issue is the parity. There was none.

Disagree

It WAS an over the back. Oglesby was pushed forward and off balance. That said, we play NO defense and deserved to lose. That and I LIKE to put words in all caps.

I thought the exact same thing on most calls - lots of "WHAT THE FUCK WAS THAT???" type stuff was yelled at the teevee.

…until I saw the replays. Most calls were not too terrible. There did, however, seem to be a few non-calls that were questionable (a travelling here & there, etc).

Huh, my wife always gives me crap for yelling at the t.v.

And I don’t recall bitching about the reffing once.

Iowa’s abysymal 3 point line defense? Lots of yelling.
Cartwright’s weird aimlesness? Lots of yelling.
Basabe’s disappearing act and pouting? Lots of yelling.
Gatens missing wide open threes? Lots of yelling.

But didn’t notice any bad calls.

A Couple of Responses

First, Nebraska won, get over it. Two, Nebraska outplayed Iowa, come to grips with it. The Sqawkeyes are now bottom feeders of the B1G, get used to it. Nebraska is better than most teams will give them credit for. This has been a bad season from the start for the Huskers. They are better than their record indicates. For the fouls that you have eluded to, get over it… They were not called so, your bitching about the Officiating is pointless. IOWA LOST TO NEBRASKA, again… Go Big Red!!!!!

LOL

That is this guy’s first comment since probably 2010.

I was wondering if any Big Red Rats would invade after we dropped a basketball game (which they obviously care so much about) to them.

The Sqawkeyes are now bottom feeders of the B1G

This is my favorite part.

Who Let in the Children?

Where were you after the wrestling dual meet? Fair-weather fans are weak. (They are also common in Nebraska.) Those who pop onto forums to start crap are just sad.

"the Hawks showed that they had forgotten everything they had learned during their brief mini-resurgence in January"

That summed it up in a nutshell.

I got home from work at 31-20 just in time for the Cartwright turnoverfest

I promptly turned it off. An opportunity at a blow-out was there, and we fucked around with it. Both Cartwright and Basabe have awful body language. Basabe looks like a guy that has completely lost interest in playing basketball at Iowa anymore. Fran’s post-game comments that it’s on him now, that he needs to decide where this is going…that sounds like a guy that may not be around past this season, a guy that has checked out mentally. At best, he read too many of his press clippings from last year and let his freshman year get to his head, is getting the proper kick in the ass from Fran and his teammates, and he’ll bounce back. Frankly, I think that is being pretty optimistic right now.

Basabe has been passed by both McCabe and White. McCabe put on weight in the off-season, but it hasn’t affected him like it did Basabe. White plays with energy every night, even if it’s slightly misguided at times due to inexperience. I’ll take that every night over Basabe’s non-effort.

Just disappointing all-around. Iowa had no business losing that game. Richardson going off for 25 is just inexcusable. Too many open looks, too many easy drives to the basket, no one protecting the rim…just no reason to lose that game.

Right now our best 5 are

Marble – Gatens – May – McCabe – White

May only for his effort on D and we don’t have another good option with Cartwright completely losing his mind periodically.

Agreed

Cartwright losing his shit leaves this team in a tough spot. Same with Mel. If Fran was getting even close to the same production from those two as he did a year ago, we’d be a damn tough out.

Good news is we have good recruits that will replace them both.

Cartwright cost us the game. That’s overreacting a lot, but he was not on the same page when we had a big lead, and the bounce pass at the rim in the second half was just mind boggling. And I have a pretty boggle-proof mind.

Either way, he cost us at least 6 points and didn’t give them back with points of his own.

Fran seems to be a Next Man In kind of guy, and if you look at Bryce and Mel (our saviors last year)……he’s moving on.

Maybe overreacting a little considering how bad the defense was,

but Iowa seemed to be in control when I flipped it on around the 4 or 5 minute mark and it was 31-20. Then Cartwright went into turnover mode – the pick-and-roll pass at Brommer’s ankles, the horrible pass to Oglesby that left him with a difficult scoop lay-up with his off-hand, the constant dribbling…for a second it looked like he morphed into Tony Freeman.

Good way to put it – I know it’s a somewhat tired statement given how much turnover the football team has had, but he’s a next man in kind of guy, and it looks like he’s ready to move on from Mel and Bryce.

Not overreacting at all

It seems like Cartwright has regressed just as much if not more then Basabe this year. At least with Basabe you can point to some of the foul trouble and make some excuse about how that can disrupt the flow of your game, but Cartwright has been making some really inexcusably bad plays this year. Lately he’s good for at least one terrible bounce pass to the other team per game. And when he’s not passing it to the other team he seems to dribble around aimlessly a lot. It’s gotten to the point where the offense seems to stall out when he’s running it. Maybe it just seems that way because I’ve been so frustrated with him lately.

Last night I was annoyed that Basabe decided not to play again and the refs pissed me off with some of their calls, but Bryce was just plain killing me.

While it might be understandable to see

Cartwright and/or Basabe take a small step back this year, it really is very confusing about how in the fuck they have both gone straight in the shitter.

I wonder if either or both became friends with Hubbard, and have never been enthusiastic since Hubbard left.

It really makes me wish we still had Cully Payne and Aaron Fuller.

man, i love the armchair psychology; it's so fun
In last night's game thread,

someone asked if Nebraska was the worst team in the Big Ten. I think we’re (Nebraska fan, here) definitely the least talented team in the Big Ten. Early on in the season, we saw Nebraska rely on defensive gimmickry to beat USC on the road and hang in there against quality (that term is relative) teams like Oregon, Creighton, etc. The defensive gimmicks seem to have been abandoned recently – and even if they weren’t, the team isn’t good enough to win consistently anyway.

Nebraska, playing the blind pig for this film, was bound to find a couple of acorns along the way when opponents didn’t care (Iowa!) or were similarly awful (Penn State). Is Nebrasketball in danger of crawling out of the bottom of the latrine toward respectability? They’re certainly not getting high-quality recruits at the moment, but the athletic department has thrown a TON of money at basketball facilities:
http://www.huskers.com/PhotoAlbum.dbml?SPSID=20&SPID=24&DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=100&PALBID=419714

A new arena is on the way:
http://www.haymarketnow.com/arena

So maybe some recruits who are swayed by shiny stuff without a whiff of basketball tradition or winning basketball culture will show up.

All that is anecdotal to the fact that Iowa should have won that game by 12. Go Big Red.

Are they going to name the new basketball arena after Tom Osborne?

No, that’s a serious question.

I feel like Basabe

is becoming an Eric May story part 2, so much potential in his freshman year but kind of faded away in his sophomore year. I hope he can turn it around but i have a feeling he’s going to have to do it from the bench for the rest of the year.

Comparing Basabe to May right now is unfair to May

may was solid last night, Basabe was godawful

May at least still plays defense well.
May was legitimately excited and showed good effort last night

Especially late when he knocked down that 3. I don’t know if it was because he actually, you know, made a shot, but he was at least pumped up and encouraging his teammates to pick it up (same for Gatens). They both knew what was happening – they’d given a poor effort as a team and they were losing a game they had no business losing.

Mel is The Invisible Man right now.

Yeah, he was very fired up when he made that late 3.

That was nice to see. There’s definitely still a place for him in the rotation. I don’t know if that’s true for Melsahn, though, if he gives us nothing on offense.

That's what's so frustrating with Mel

He said on Tuesday that he was going to use rebounding to get back in a groove, simplify things, not worry so much about touches, etc. Then he posts a line like that with all of 1 rebound. It makes no sense, and if he’s not careful, his playing time is going to evaporate completely.

I agree – May has a place in the rotation. He’s a solid defensive player. Anything we get from him offensively is a bonus.

I wonder if May just needs a set play or two designed just for him to be run early in the 1st half of every game.

An alley-oop thunderdunk, for example. Just to have something to start off the game in a positive manner, something he can use his athletic ability to explode into and get a little fire going early.

I agree with that too - run a play or two for May to get him some confidence

While we’re at it, do the same with Mel. Run a play or two for him that could lead to an easy bucket to get him on track for the night.

May with confidence is extremely fun to watch

Really enjoyed that his freshman year

I'm not sure a set play is the answer.

I think perhaps we should run-and-gun for the first 5 minutes. May could keep up for that long, and then sit down for another player to enter at that point.

What about the block on an easy layup?

May had a good game. He was aggressive, with not a lot to show for it, but he caused problems. Didn’t make many mistakes, and was a better defender.

This doesn't have much to do with UI hoops,

but I wasn’t sure whether to laugh, or feel a little sad.

Mostly, I laughed.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/7505656/iowa-state-royce-white-battle-college-basketball

Im convinced that the only reason Archie isnt getting more minutes is his free throws

because thats the only thing brommer might have an advantage over him with.

Brommer sucks.

At everything basketball related.

But I hear he is all B1G when it comes to drinking water, tying his shoes, and warming up.

This isn't true at all

He’s very good at fouling and taking an occasional charge. Both those things are basketball related.

Well, I suppose.....
this comment 3 minutes after your diatribe against people disparaging Basabe. Gotcha.
Name a game that Brommer won for us....

been here for 4 years. Has he ever had a double-double?
Are you comparing Basabe to Brommer? That’s hilarious.

I am comparing your changing attitude in two consecutive posts

If you’re going to pound your fist on the table about haters, don’t turn around and hate in your very next sentence. You look like an asshole.

That's because I am an asshole.
And if you can't look at the two players and see the gulf of difference.....

then I question how it is that you so accurately described me as looking like an asshole.

Again, I am not comparing the players.

I am comparing the apparently differing versions of you

Brommer

may not be a good player. But, he’s kept his nose clean, appears to have been a good team-mate, and appears to make effort.

We could do a lot worse for a bench player.

they really couldn't do worse
This isn't about citizenship, personality, or sticking with it.

I want a winning basketball team. That means the best players and best athletes should play. We have Gabe O and Archie, both are (as I hope I’ve made clear) twice the player Brommer is.

Archie is twice the player Brommer is?

You haven’t made that clear, and you won’t be able to. And that’s because the results on the floor don’t say that at all. Archie appears to be more athletic, but he sure hasn’t shown himself to be twice the player.

Stats:

Brommer: 171 min. 1.9 pts/game 1.9 reb/game ft 9/23 2 blocks fouls 31
Archie: 120 min. 1.6 pts/game 2.1 reb/game ft 2/5 6 blocks fouts 14

So no, not twice the player. You’re right.

Sorry.....

forgot to say that while he might not be twice the player, he is substantially better in the stats that count while plyaing 51 (more than a game and a quarter) less.

And as for the free throw argument…. neither are great but Brommer is obviously very poor and has had more attempts.

The stats you left out are that Brommer shoots 10 percentage points better (in an admittedly small amount of shooting out of each player) and that they have the same amount of turnovers, despite (as you noted), Archie playing 51 less minutes.

It’s really not worth trying to claim one of them has performed amazing better than the other.

You must really like Brommer as a player.

So we’ll call it an agree to disagree.

I think some of us are saying

that, as long as Brommer is working hard and not being a detriment to team chemistry, then perhaps we shouldn’t rip the guy. Particularly since he’s a senior and you won’t have to worry about him in 3 months.

No, I don't. But you seem to think that you make some airtight argument that simply isn't there
That's the beauty of thinking I'm right and you're wrong.

Which is why I said let’s agree to disagree. I think I have evidence (blocks and rebounds) that prove Archie is better, and you don’t think that’s the case.

And Rupert said

Brommer shoots better and turns it over less.

Archie might be the better player, or at least more valuable to Iowa right now. Just try not to act like Brommer “can’t be compared” to the great wonderfulness that is Devon Archie.

I'm acting like the better player and more valuable player should be playing.
That came across bitchy. Sorry.

No disrespect.

But, to be honest, neither are great or even good.

You stated earlier that in 3 months we’ll have a new center, as both Archie and Brommer will be gone. It will be fun to see what happens over the next couple of years with Woodbury at center, and with White having a year under his belt.

Yep, I think we are all looking forward to that.

I do hope, that if Woodbury doesn’t step in as an immediate house of fire, then perhaps we don’t get too judgmental about him. (Myself included)

He did last year

Oh, you mean in one game? Not exactly.

i am glad i didn't watch the second half of this game

or the PU game – from the sounds of it…We’re on a good ‘first-half’ playing streak at least…does that count as something, too bad it doesn’t

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