Michael Conroy - AP
Devyn Marble gets buckets. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)
It's been a long time since we had an Iowa basketball game to talk about -- over a week, in fact, since Iowa ventured to the lair of Our Most Hated Rival and came up short -- but with Iowa returning to action Thursday evening for our first taste of Nebrasketball since 1976, it's time to put on our thinking caps and turn our attention back to the hoopsters. About a month ago, we ran a poll asking you how many B1G wins Iowa would notch this year. The runaway winner was 4-5 wins (which was also my personal vote). Despite entering league play on a three-game winning streak (over Drake, Central Arkansas, and Boise State), memories of getting pantsed by Creighton, Iowa State, and Campbell (for reals) still lingered in our brainboxes.
Suffice to say, few of us expected Iowa to be 3-4 at the almost-halfway point of the conference season. (Well, maybe the 10% of you who picked Iowa to have 8+ wins in B1G play expected it...) Not against a schedule that featured four opponents currently ranked in the top 25 (Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin) and four road games, including fearsome trips to the likes of Madison and West Lafayette (where road teams almost never win). But they did win against those ranked opponents (twice, in fact) and in those foreboding road venues (in Madison and in Minneapolis). And so they're 3-4, the exact same mark as conference wunderkinds Indiana (until Indiana's win last weekend, at least). Not many of us saw that coming back in late December.
And now we enter the portion of the schedule that is, on paper at least, less threatening. Conference heavyweights Ohio State and Michigan State are in our rearview mirror (thank god), as is Michigan. There's still a game (at CHA) remaining with Wisconsin, as well as a nasty-looking road trip to Champaign, and a home-and-home with those aforementioned Hoosiers (still comfortably in the top-20 despite that 4-4 league mark). But there's also a trio of home-and-homes with the three teams sitting below Iowa in the league standings: Northwestern, Nebraska, and Penn State. Those teams have all claimed impressive scalps already -- Northwestern ended Michigan State's 15-game winning streak, Nebraska knocked off Indiana, and Penn State beat Purdue and Illinois -- so they should not be taken lightly... but they're also nowhere near as imposing as the likes of Ohio State or Michigan State (or even Michigan and Wisconsin, frankly). They represent winnable games to this Iowa team.
Which leads to our question: how many of those winnable games will Iowa win over the next six weeks? There's nine conference games remaining -- what will Iowa's final conference record be?
Remaining Big Ten Schedule
1/26: Nebraska
1/29: at Indiana
2/1: Minnesota
2/4: Penn State
2/9: at Northwestern
2/16: at Penn State
2/18: Indiana
2/23: Wisconsin
2/26: at Illinois
2/28: at Nebraska
3/3: Northwestern
1 recs | 67 comments
Either 4-4 or 3-4 against Nebrasketball and Penn State
1-3 or 2-3 against Minnesota and Northwestern. That would be 4-6 more wins in my opinion. I just can’t see us beating Illinois or Northwestern on the road. Nor can I see us beating Wisconsin again. Winning 7 conference games this season would be a building block for next year. But hey, winning 9 would kick ass.
mikjones24 - January 25, 2012
Agreed
my “way too optimistic, but if everything breaks right for us, it could maybe possibly happen” prediction was .500 in conference (again – this is best case scenario). After the horrible non-con losses I figured we had no chance, but now after some of the early wins in conference, I have again opened up that possibility in my mind.
Brock8144 - January 26, 2012
I am thinking 4-5 the rest of the way
Hopefully it will be 5-4 and they will get to the NIT. But I foresee major problems with NW and their cutting and three point shooting, Indiana with revenge on their mind, getting blasted in Champaign which is BAU and Nebraska being amped to take out Iowa in Lincoln.
Still, a remarkble turnaround.
Torbee - January 25, 2012
I thought it was just 9 games left, but it's actually 11.
It would probably be more appropriate to run this post next Monday, but news is slow…
RossWB - January 25, 2012
In that case, I say 5-6.
For consistency’s sake.
Torbee - January 25, 2012
I find myself in the 5-6 win range for the rest of the season.
Every remaining home game is winnable, although Wisconsin, Indiana, and Minnesota won’t be easy.
I’m heartened by Indiana’s struggles on the road (they’ve looked like a totally different team away from Assembly Hall, and hell – Minnesota was able to beat them there). Although they also look like the remaining team most capable of just pulverizing us a la OSU/MSU if their inside-outside game is clicking and their 3s are falling.
On the other hand Nebraska and Penn State have been very tricky on their home floors and jNW is a persistent bugaboo for Iowa. 5 wins seems doable (take 4/6 from PSU, jNW, and NEB, plus 1 of the remaining 5) and 6 seems possible (same, except take 2 of the remaining 5 perhaps).
RossWB - January 25, 2012
The Indiana bandwagon horrifically crashed
And there were no survivors. They’re a good team…but not that good. Of course, we base our predictions on Iowa being a consistent basketball team. With the way things are going they could lose to Nebraska at home and then go and beat Indiana on the road.
mikjones24 - January 25, 2012
I like 7-8
Lose to Nebby, beat the Hoosiers? I can see this.
Blackheartnopants - January 25, 2012 via Android app
Vintage Iowa Football!
HawkeyeGirleye - January 25, 2012
I voted 7/8
and I will make no predictions on who those wins will be against. The BIG doesn’t make sense and of all the teams in it perhaps Iowa makes the least sense. Trying to predict what will happen just seems like the type of madness that is better left to articles written by hack journalists living in their mom’s basements. Somehow though, I think Iowa gets to 8 wins in the B1G this year, i hope I underestimate them as badly this time as I did last time.
SaturdayMorningKegStanzis - January 25, 2012
btw that was a sarcastic joke
We all know that Vint is the hack.
SaturdayMorningKegStanzis - January 25, 2012
That's right.
I live UPSTAIRS, dammit.
RossWB - January 25, 2012
Also, I don't live with my mom.
(Not that there’s anything wrong with that if you do.)
RossWB - January 25, 2012
I'm being optimistic and went 9-10 wins
.500 in this league would be remarkable considering the overall strength of the league and where this team was in early December. An NIT bid would be a big step in the right direction.
Also – we’re at 11 wins right now with 12 games left to play (including first round of the BTT). Last year’s team won 11 games total. Frantastic turnaround.
Nickhawk08 - January 25, 2012
Threadjack, but Barta won a National championship as D-2 quarterback for the Biosn?
//mind asploded
Bloodpunch is the fucking bomb. Does he have any eligibility left?
YouCanPutYourEddsInIt - January 25, 2012
MOVE BLOODPUNCH TO LINEBACKER IMMEDIATELY!
djwoody - January 25, 2012
You have a new friend.
tyger1147 - January 26, 2012
I had Iowa at 5 wins in the remaining schedule, but think 6 may be possible
So I went 9/10 because I’m a sucker and remain optimistic despite all the disappointment Iowa sports has provided recently.
The Mexican't - January 25, 2012
Over the last 10 games we're playing like a borderline top 40 team
If that continues, I expect 9 or 10 total conference wins.
Out of curiosity, I calculated our estimated Sagarin Predictor rating for the past 10 games by using our opponents Sagarin Predictor ratings, margin of victory, and adjusting for home court advantage. The rating I came up with is 83.18, compared with our actual Sagarin Predictor rating of 77.19. Which means our rating through the first 10 games was about 71. Obviously it is well known that we have improved from the first 10 games to the second 10 games, but to make it concrete a Sagarin rating of 71 corresponds to a ranking of 190-200 and a Sagarin rating of 83.18 corresponds to a ranking of about 40. We have improved our ranking 150 places from the first 10 games to the second 10 games. Pretty remarkable.
Here are the numbers I used:
nattybumpo - January 25, 2012
Interesting stats.
That’s one hell of an improvement. I mean, the eyeball test certainly suggests considerable improvement — the team lately looks a lot better than the team that got waxed by Campbell (minus the OSU and MSU debacles) — but it’s nice to see stats that support that notion as well.
RossWB - January 25, 2012
I voted 7-8
pretty much solely on the idea that you’ll drop one to UN-L/PSU and get either us or Minnesota at home. I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if you took us, and wouldn’t be surprised, either, if you managed to claim one more scalp along the way and finish 8-10 or even (in this wacky year) go 9-9.
MNWildcat - January 25, 2012
Got My Full Homer On
I went 11+. I was also one of the 10% who had confidence in our brave young men during the first poll.
9-10 is probably more realistic, but fuck it. Go big or go home.
Flakbait - January 25, 2012
Most surprising to me is that there are at least 4 people that think Iowa will win no more than 1 of the remaining games.
The Mexican't - January 25, 2012
They're either trying for impressive reverse jinxes, fans of other schools, or deeply pessimistic.
RossWB - January 25, 2012
I voted 3-4
because I skimmed the poll question. I mean 3-4 more conference wins, not total. Whoops.
DJK's bongwater - January 25, 2012
Ahhhh, It's a total deal.
Kluginator - January 25, 2012
This poll is now tainted!
I call for a revote!
ClaybornSmash - January 25, 2012
Navin Johnson, you are somebody!
Blackheartnopants - January 25, 2012 via Android app
uh, yea
me too, should learn to read more thoroughly.
3-4 ADDITIONAL wins would be my vote.
The Bacon Explosion - January 25, 2012
8 conference wins
Maybe lose one they shouldn’t, win one they shoudn’t. At that point,a solid NIT team, probably a home first game, and a strong sign that we’re on the way back.
Mr. Grizz - January 25, 2012
I hate to say it,
but I’ll be satisfied if we just win twice vs Nebby and twice vs PSU.
Yeah, it’d only be 7 conference wins, but then we can see what happens in the B10 Tourney.
WaterlooChazz - January 25, 2012
I'd say it's pretty likely
we don’t win all 4 of those games, but at the same time come up with a surprise win.
isHawkeye - January 25, 2012
That's my thinking, too.
Nebraska and Penn State, to me and others, are DEFINITELY the worst two teams in the conference. Beat those teams home and away, and I feel good. But then I get greedy, and seeing them on the same level as Minnesota and jNW, I want them to beat those teams in CHA.
tyger1147 - January 26, 2012
Anybody else find it interesting
that in this article Iowa is listed three times under bad loses? Kind of satisfying that we have beaten three “upper crust” teams.
The Bacon Explosion - January 25, 2012
I was wondering
how many bubble or tourney teams Iowa has to beat before they stop being a “bad loss”
hawkeye0485 - January 25, 2012
It's a great question
Also – I just don’t see it with ISU. They just don’t have any quality wins. They’ve played 3 ranked teams and lost to all of them, plus have so-so losses to Drake and UNI (UNI isn’t as bad a loss as Drake, but it’s unlikely that they make the tournament at this point).
That said, they have some big chances for that elusive quality win coming up. They have to notch a win somewhere between KU, KSU (2) , Baylor (2), or Missouri (@Missouri).
Nickhawk08 - January 25, 2012
when our rating goes up just a tad more.
We’re still 105 in Sagarin (side note: we have 9 games against the top-50 there, and I don’t see any team with more) and 97 at KenPom.
rupertj - January 25, 2012
Well, they can't lose any more games to teams like Campbell. Clemson and even Northern Iowa.
Those losses count as much in making Iowa look bad as beating Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota make them look good.
If they lose to the likes of Nebraska and/or Penn State (teams that are in between Clemson and Campbell) then even if they beat Minnesota and Indiana, those will still be bad losses for those teams.
tyger1147 - January 26, 2012
NIT question . . .
Can you get in with a losing conference record if your overall record is at or above .500?
And if so, do you think Iowa gets in with an 8-10 Big 10 record?
Torbee - January 25, 2012
First: Yes.
Second: Doubt it.
mikjones24 - January 25, 2012
If there is any way to measure pent-up fan desire . . .
I would think the NIT would think hard about inviting Iowa even at 8-10. I think the game would have HUGE attendance after the postseason drought.
Torbee - January 25, 2012
I doubt it
Iowa would probably need almost every mid to low major regular season champ to win their tourney to get an NIT bid.
PackerHawk - January 25, 2012
1) Yes and 2) No
That would give us a 16-15 overall record, I believe, which wouldn’t be quite enough.
The NIT has gotten harder for big boy teams to get into since they changed the set-up and guaranteed spots to all the mid-major regular season champs that get bounced in their conference tournaments.
RossWB - January 25, 2012
Yep. 32 team field.
From wikipedia:
WaterlooChazz - January 25, 2012
I have an awesome idea.....
BHGP should buy up a huge block of tickets for the Illinois game. Then we all go to the game dressed as Illinois fans and then midway into the first half we yank off our Illini camouflage and start cheering for the Hawkeyes. What do ya think? What do ya think?
Ahh the more I think about it, only a bunch of douche bags would do this. Forget I even suggested it.
Kluginator - January 25, 2012
I want to biatch make Illinois for so many reasons.
Kluginator - January 25, 2012
bitchmaking Illinois
is like bluemaking the sky.
TEXaco - January 25, 2012
And it doesn't work so well someplace that actually sells out almost every homegame....
PackerHawk - January 25, 2012
COUGH! trystreakingthecourt COUGH!
Blackheartnopants - January 25, 2012 via Android app
I think we should just
organize a bus trip, and stop and take a shit in the flower-beds near the athletic facilities area in Champaign.
Oh, who am I kidding? Illinois is already taking care of shitting the bed every March.
WaterlooChazz - January 25, 2012
11+ wins was my vote
It’s kinda like hitting 18 on the blackjack table with a four showing, fucking stupid but sometimes stepping out on the ledge and slipping off it sounds like a great idea.
Twin Cities Hawk - January 25, 2012
I understand it's just a scheduling quirk...
But it’s still pretty weird that Iowa State has played THREE games since the last time Iowa played a game.
RossWB - January 25, 2012
ZOMG! Iowa Conspiracy against ISU!!!111!!!
/CF’d
ClaybornSmash - January 25, 2012
How has the Register
not done a scathing expose’ on this egregious offense?
Speaking of egregious offense, UNI has lost 4 of their last 6 mens’ hoops games, scoring just under 63 ppg in those games.
WaterlooChazz - January 25, 2012
The Clippers have played 5 fewer games than the Lakers. Also weird.
therealCatnuts - January 25, 2012
Hate Nebraska
Let’s smear Nebrasketball for a second. They’ve have never won an NCAA tournament game. 0-for-forever in the tournament.
Remember to direct some hate their way tomorrow. You may resume your previously scheduled Wednesday afternoon/evening activities.
Nickhawk08 - January 25, 2012
At least they've been to the NCAA Tournament....
Although I guess we could say that jNW is undefeated all time in the Tourney
PackerHawk - January 25, 2012
That 0-0 all-time NCAA Tournament record is impressive
Nickhawk08 - January 25, 2012
Still perfect!
Blackheartnopants - January 25, 2012 via Android app
Basketball hasn't been invented yet?
PackerHawk - January 25, 2012
Because it isn't 1995 yet?
WaterlooChazz - January 25, 2012
No, because jNW hasn't gotten to the tournament yet
PackerHawk - January 26, 2012
Wow...talk about your bell distribution curves.
Cardina1 - January 25, 2012
6 home games, 5 away games.
I’d like Iowa to just be one of those teams that plays really tough at home. I like that they can win on the road and there doesn’t seem to be a home-road split for the team (it bodes well if the staff does actually have a way to prepare the team well for road games), but if they can be a team that beats every team they are “better than” at home, while mixing in a few upsets, I’d be happy.
Basically:
-at home and on the road, beat the teams their better than: Nebraska, Penn State
-at home, beat the teams they’re even with; on the road, lose to the teams they’re even with: Minnesota, jNW, Purdue
-at home, lose to the teams they’re worse than; on the road, lose to the teams they’re worse than: tOSU, MSU, Wisconsin, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan
Throw in a couple of upsets like Wiscy and Minnesota, and I’ll be able to suffer the losses to Nebraska and Penn State. At that point, it’s just a matter of getting the better talent and being the better team. What would really bother me is if they’re like the football team (that doesn’t win orange bowls): beats undefeated Spartans and good Wolverines, but lose to Gophers and Cyclones. That sort of inconsistency* is maddening to me.
So all that said, if I’ve grouped the teams right, I’d choose 5-6 more wins, or 8-9 wins total. That’s not a choice, so I took the smaller win total of 7-8.
*and even more-so because the football team is SUPPOSED to be all about consistency – or at least I thought so
tyger1147 - January 26, 2012
Honestly
I don’t see opponent being such a huge factor in our wins or loses. The way we played against MSU was basically the same as the way we played against Campbell – didn’t matter who we played, we were going to lose.
I think we have the ability to win the rest of the games on our schedule but it isn’t that much of a stretch to argue that each game in isolation is loseable. I doubt very much that would happen but consistency just isn’t there yet. The lsat 10 games has seen a significant up tick that hopefully will continue.
The Bacon Explosion - January 26, 2012
I really, really, really people (especially students) show up for the game tonight
While doing a 5 for 6 deal helps (6 games for $50 for students), they really should up the ante. Do more free hot dogs for students. Or hell, just make the student tickets free. Students need to get used to coming to Carver for basketball games again. Bring them in. It’s embarrassing the coaches and players have to beg the students to come in every interview they give. I realize winning will help the students come, but a formidable student section should help with winning as well.
Captain n Diet Coker - January 26, 2012
Whoops, that should be I really HOPE people show up for the game.
Stupid no edit button.
Captain n Diet Coker - January 26, 2012
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